1:00 Dose of Ebolology: Ebola's Mortality Rate in Context

Ebola's Mortality Rate in Context

Further Update: Dr. Craig Spencer has fully recovered, is from of Ebola, and has been released from the hospital.  This officially brings the case:fatality ratio in the US to 1:9

UPDATE: Dr. Craig's Spencer's condition has been upgraded to "stable" from "serious but stable".  Hopefully he continues to recover, and will become person #8 to walk out of the hospital.

EBOLA KILLS UP TO 90% OF THOSE INFECTED!!!!!!!!!!!!  

So scream the headlines.  For a long time, this was absolutely true.  Depending on the strain and healthcare options available at the site of an outbreak, it is often still true.  The official mortality rate of the current epidemic in West Africa is wavering between 50% and 55%.  In other words, this outbreak is a little less "fatal" than others, but still-living or dying has the same odds as a coin flip.  The mortality rate in West Africa is disturbingly high, and we as a society can and should do better.  Why am I and my colleagues NOT PANICKING ABOUT AN OUTBREAK IN THE US????

Clinical outcomes from Ebola cases are very context dependent.  Effective treatments such as fever control, fluid replacement, dialysis if need be, and passive transfer of antibodies do exist, and Western countries have the infrastructure to administer these interventions quite effectively.  9 people have been diagnosed/treated in the United States.  1 (Thomas Eric Duncan) has died, and it is important to note that Duncan did not receive treatment until he was already critically ill.  1 (Craig Spencer) is hospitalized and his condition is serious but stable.  The other 7 have walked out of the hospital completely recovered.  

In other words, in a Western healthcare setting, the mortality rate is more or less inverted.  This is still quite serious-I do not mean to minimize it-but let's keep it in perspective and context.