5:00 Dose of Fluology: Your FluCast Calls for...

Your Flucast Calls For...

Evolutionary forecasting is a very cool idea.  The long and short of it is that we can look at the rates of genetic change in a certain population, look at the changes in rate by certain evolutionary drivers, look at the impact that one genetic change might have on the development of another, and come up with predictions about what could happen to that population in the future.

This concept is being applied to Influenza with great gusto.  The population changes quickly, and we have a very solid understanding of which factors drive evolutionary change in this virus.  There is also exciting potential for forecasting here: imagine if one could predict the "drifting" of seasonal flu strains, and make the seasonal vaccine accordingly!  Imagine if one could predict the changes that make a strain TamiFlu resistant, and make an alternative compound to treat them.  This is very cool stuff.

It is also a strong comment about the importance of basic research, and the understanding of biological principles.  We make new medicines by understanding how things work.